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The Figuring Footy Predictions

Every week during the season, I post match predictions for the upcoming round. These are in the form of a percentage probability and give the "chances"1 of the home team winning each match.

RoundTimeGroundTeamHT%Opponent
23 25/08/2017GabbaBrisbane40.2North Melbourne
23 25/08/2017M.C.G.Collingwood36.3Melbourne
23 25/08/2017DocklandsEssendon79.4Fremantle
23 25/08/2017Kardinia ParkGeelong54.3GWS
23 25/08/2017DocklandsHawthorn51.7Western Bulldogs
23 25/08/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide90.1Gold Coast
23 25/08/2017M.C.G.Richmond65.5St Kilda
23 25/08/2017S.C.G.Sydney94.7Carlton
23 25/08/2017SubiacoWest Coast38.9Adelaide
227:50 PM Friday 18/08/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide63Sydney
221:45 PM Saturday 19/08/2017Eureka StadiumWestern Bulldogs56.9Port Adelaide
222:10 PM Saturday 19/08/2017M.C.G.Collingwood27.2Geelong
224:35 PM Saturday 19/08/2017ShowgroundGWS77.4West Coast
227:25 PM Saturday 19/08/2017CarraraGold Coast42.8Essendon
227:25 PM Saturday 19/08/2017DocklandsCarlton25.1Hawthorn
221:10 PM Sunday 20/08/2017M.C.G.Melbourne90.8Brisbane
223:20 PM Sunday 20/08/2017DocklandsSt Kilda65.6North Melbourne
224:40 PM Sunday 20/08/2017SubiacoFremantle25.9Richmond
217:50 PM Friday 11/08/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs52.5GWS
211:45 PM Saturday 12/08/2017S.C.G.Sydney94.9Fremantle
212:10 PM Saturday 12/08/2017Kardinia ParkGeelong48.7Richmond
214:35 PM Saturday 12/08/2017GabbaBrisbane42.2Gold Coast
217:25 PM Saturday 12/08/2017DocklandsEssendon32Adelaide
217:40 PM Saturday 12/08/2017SubiacoWest Coast88.8Carlton
211:10 PM Sunday 13/08/2017M.C.G.Melbourne51.9St Kilda
213:20 PM Sunday 13/08/2017York ParkHawthorn66North Melbourne
214:40 PM Sunday 13/08/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide75.4Collingwood
207:50 PM Friday 4/08/2017Kardinia ParkGeelong55.1Sydney
201:45 PM Saturday 5/08/2017Manuka OvalGWS63.6Melbourne
202:10 PM Saturday 5/08/2017M.C.G.Essendon73.5Carlton
204:35 PM Saturday 5/08/2017GabbaBrisbane22Western Bulldogs
207:25 PM Saturday 5/08/2017DocklandsNorth Melbourne47Collingwood
207:40 PM Saturday 5/08/2017SubiacoFremantle61.7Gold Coast
201:10 PM Sunday 6/08/2017DocklandsSt Kilda57.3West Coast
203:20 PM Sunday 6/08/2017M.C.G.Richmond63Hawthorn
204:40 PM Sunday 6/08/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide60.5Port Adelaide
197:50 PM Friday 28/07/2017M.C.G.Hawthorn35.7Sydney
191:45 PM Saturday 29/07/2017Bellerive OvalNorth Melbourne31.3Melbourne
192:10 PM Saturday 29/07/2017ShowgroundGWS91.6Fremantle
194:35 PM Saturday 29/07/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide72.4St Kilda
197:25 PM Saturday 29/07/2017DocklandsCarlton15.3Geelong
197:25 PM Saturday 29/07/2017CarraraGold Coast33Richmond
191:10 PM Sunday 30/07/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs58.8Essendon
193:20 PM Sunday 30/07/2017M.C.G.Collingwood32.4Adelaide
194:40 PM Sunday 30/07/2017SubiacoWest Coast92.2Brisbane
187:50 PM Friday 21/07/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide62.9Geelong
181:45 PM Saturday 22/07/2017DocklandsEssendon56.9North Melbourne
182:10 PM Saturday 22/07/2017M.C.G.Melbourne51.6Port Adelaide
184:35 PM Saturday 22/07/2017Cazaly's StadiumWestern Bulldogs69.6Gold Coast
187:25 PM Saturday 22/07/2017S.C.G.Sydney81St Kilda
187:40 PM Saturday 22/07/2017SubiacoFremantle44.6Hawthorn
181:10 PM Sunday 23/07/2017M.C.G.Richmond53.2GWS
183:20 PM Sunday 23/07/2017DocklandsCollingwood42.1West Coast
184:40 PM Sunday 23/07/2017GabbaBrisbane48.4Carlton
177:50 PM Friday 14/07/2017DocklandsSt Kilda71.5Essendon
171:45 PM Saturday 15/07/2017M.C.G.Geelong71.5Hawthorn
172:10 PM Saturday 15/07/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide80.5North Melbourne
174:35 PM Saturday 15/07/2017CarraraGold Coast65.6Collingwood
177:25 PM Saturday 15/07/2017ShowgroundGWS50.2Sydney
177:40 PM Saturday 15/07/2017Marrara OvalMelbourne44.5Adelaide
171:10 PM Sunday 16/07/2017DocklandsRichmond91.7Brisbane
173:20 PM Sunday 16/07/2017M.C.G.Carlton30.5Western Bulldogs
174:40 PM Sunday 16/07/2017SubiacoFremantle22.2West Coast
167:50 PM Friday 7/07/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide74.1Western Bulldogs
161:45 PM Saturday 8/07/2017York ParkHawthorn29.9GWS
162:10 PM Saturday 8/07/2017M.C.G.Collingwood58.4Essendon
164:35 PM Saturday 8/07/2017S.C.G.Sydney87.1Gold Coast
167:25 PM Saturday 8/07/2017GabbaBrisbane16.4Geelong
167:25 PM Saturday 8/07/2017DocklandsSt Kilda44.3Richmond
161:10 PM Sunday 9/07/2017DocklandsNorth Melbourne78.8Fremantle
163:20 PM Sunday 9/07/2017M.C.G.Carlton24.7Melbourne
164:40 PM Sunday 9/07/2017SubiacoWest Coast72Port Adelaide
157:50 PM Friday 30/06/2017M.C.G.Melbourne61.2Sydney
151:45 PM Saturday 1/07/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs55.1West Coast
152:10 PM Saturday 1/07/2017M.C.G.Carlton31.2Adelaide
154:35 PM Saturday 1/07/2017CarraraGold Coast55North Melbourne
157:25 PM Saturday 1/07/2017ShowgroundGWS68Geelong
157:40 PM Saturday 1/07/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide62.2Richmond
151:10 PM Sunday 2/07/2017DocklandsEssendon83.8Brisbane
153:20 PM Sunday 2/07/2017M.C.G.Hawthorn51.2Collingwood
154:40 PM Sunday 2/07/2017SubiacoFremantle40St Kilda
147:50 PM Thursday 22/06/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide84.9Hawthorn
147:50 PM Friday 23/06/2017S.C.G.Sydney84.3Essendon
141:45 PM Saturday 24/06/2017M.C.G.Collingwood56.7Port Adelaide
144:35 PM Saturday 24/06/2017GabbaBrisbane13GWS
147:25 PM Saturday 24/06/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs59.2North Melbourne
147:40 PM Saturday 24/06/2017SubiacoWest Coast66.8Melbourne
141:10 PM Sunday 25/06/2017Kardinia ParkGeelong90Fremantle
143:20 PM Sunday 25/06/2017M.C.G.Richmond75.3Carlton
144:40 PM Sunday 25/06/2017DocklandsSt Kilda74.6Gold Coast
138:10 PM Thursday 15/06/2017SubiacoWest Coast59Geelong
137:50 PM Friday 16/06/2017DocklandsNorth Melbourne53.1St Kilda
131:45 PM Saturday 17/06/2017M.C.G.Richmond59.9Sydney
134:35 PM Saturday 17/06/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide90.7Brisbane
137:25 PM Saturday 17/06/2017CarraraGold Coast74.7Carlton
133:20 PM Sunday 18/06/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs53.8Melbourne
13BYENANANANA
13BYENANANANA
13BYENANANANA
127:20 PM Thursday 8/06/2017S.C.G.Sydney59.5Western Bulldogs
127:50 PM Friday 9/06/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide77.3St Kilda
121:45 PM Saturday 10/06/2017M.C.G.Hawthorn64.3Gold Coast
124:35 PM Saturday 10/06/2017GabbaBrisbane37.5Fremantle
127:25 PM Saturday 10/06/2017DocklandsEssendon35.7Port Adelaide
123:20 PM Sunday 11/06/2017DocklandsCarlton22.6GWS
123:20 PM Monday 12/06/2017M.C.G.Melbourne57.9Collingwood
11BYENANANANA
11BYENANANANA
117:50 PM Thursday 1/06/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide71Hawthorn
117:50 PM Friday 2/06/2017Kardinia ParkGeelong59Adelaide
111:45 PM Saturday 3/06/2017CarraraGold Coast37.2West Coast
114:35 PM Saturday 3/06/2017ShowgroundGWS89.1Essendon
117:25 PM Saturday 3/06/2017DocklandsNorth Melbourne48.3Richmond
114:40 PM Sunday 4/06/2017SubiacoFremantle57.9Collingwood
11BYENANANANA
11BYENANANANA
11BYENANANANA
107:20 PM Thursday 25/05/2017Kardinia ParkGeelong71.3Port Adelaide
107:50 PM Friday 26/05/2017S.C.G.Sydney77.7Hawthorn
101:45 PM Saturday 27/05/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs59St Kilda
104:35 PM Saturday 27/05/2017Traeger ParkMelbourne66.2Gold Coast
107:25 PM Saturday 27/05/2017M.C.G.Richmond67.9Essendon
107:40 PM Saturday 27/05/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide84.9Fremantle
101:10 PM Sunday 28/05/2017M.C.G.Collingwood88.6Brisbane
103:20 PM Sunday 28/05/2017DocklandsCarlton32.7North Melbourne
104:40 PM Sunday 28/05/2017SubiacoWest Coast59.2GWS
97:50 PM Friday 19/05/2017Kardinia ParkGeelong51.9Western Bulldogs
91:45 PM Saturday 20/05/2017DocklandsSt Kilda64.7Sydney
94:35 PM Saturday 20/05/2017ShowgroundGWS74.4Richmond
97:25 PM Saturday 20/05/2017GabbaBrisbane14.7Adelaide
97:25 PM Saturday 20/05/2017M.C.G.Collingwood43.8Hawthorn
91:10 PM Sunday 21/05/2017DocklandsEssendon26.1West Coast
93:20 PM Sunday 21/05/2017M.C.G.Melbourne62.7North Melbourne
94:40 PM Sunday 21/05/2017SubiacoFremantle69.7Carlton
9BYENANANANA
88:10 PM Friday 12/05/2017SubiacoWest Coast69.9Western Bulldogs
81:45 PM Saturday 13/05/2017York ParkHawthorn84.3Brisbane
82:10 PM Saturday 13/05/2017DocklandsSt Kilda72Carlton
84:35 PM Saturday 13/05/2017ShowgroundGWS83.5Collingwood
87:25 PM Saturday 13/05/2017M.C.G.Essendon17.7Geelong
87:40 PM Saturday 13/05/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide80.4Melbourne
81:10 PM Sunday 14/05/2017M.C.G.Richmond80.1Fremantle
83:20 PM Sunday 14/05/2017Jiangwan Sports CentreGold Coast39.5Port Adelaide
84:40 PM Sunday 14/05/2017DocklandsNorth Melbourne62.9Sydney
77:50 PM Friday 5/05/2017DocklandsSt Kilda43.2GWS
71:45 PM Saturday 6/05/2017Bellerive OvalNorth Melbourne20.3Adelaide
72:10 PM Saturday 6/05/2017M.C.G.Collingwood65.4Carlton
74:35 PM Saturday 6/05/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide52.8West Coast
77:25 PM Saturday 6/05/2017CarraraGold Coast29.8Geelong
77:25 PM Saturday 6/05/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs57.1Richmond
71:10 PM Sunday 7/05/2017S.C.G.Sydney89.4Brisbane
73:20 PM Sunday 7/05/2017M.C.G.Melbourne57.3Hawthorn
74:40 PM Sunday 7/05/2017SubiacoFremantle70.1Essendon
67:50 PM Friday 28/04/2017Manuka OvalGWS62.1Western Bulldogs
61:45 PM Saturday 29/04/2017York ParkHawthorn58.1St Kilda
62:10 PM Saturday 29/04/2017M.C.G.Carlton36.8Sydney
64:35 PM Saturday 29/04/2017GabbaBrisbane27.8Port Adelaide
67:25 PM Saturday 29/04/2017DocklandsNorth Melbourne67.1Gold Coast
68:10 PM Saturday 29/04/2017SubiacoWest Coast77.5Fremantle
61:10 PM Sunday 30/04/2017DocklandsEssendon33.7Melbourne
63:20 PM Sunday 30/04/2017M.C.G.Geelong83.4Collingwood
64:40 PM Sunday 30/04/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide77.8Richmond
57:50 PM Friday 21/04/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide80Carlton
51:45 PM Saturday 22/04/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs93.6Brisbane
54:35 PM Saturday 22/04/2017CarraraGold Coast32.8Adelaide
57:25 PM Saturday 22/04/2017S.C.G.Sydney45GWS
57:40 PM Saturday 22/04/2017SubiacoFremantle58.1North Melbourne
53:20 PM Sunday 23/04/2017DocklandsSt Kilda29.3Geelong
54:40 PM Sunday 23/04/2017M.C.G.Hawthorn40West Coast
57:25 PM Monday 24/04/2017M.C.G.Richmond56.7Melbourne
53:20 PM Tuesday 25/04/2017M.C.G.Essendon38.5Collingwood
48:10 PM Thursday 13/04/2017SubiacoWest Coast75Sydney
44:20 PM Friday 14/04/2017DocklandsNorth Melbourne33.4Western Bulldogs
41:45 PM Saturday 15/04/2017M.C.G.Melbourne83.6Fremantle
44:35 PM Saturday 15/04/2017Manuka OvalGWS60.8Port Adelaide
47:25 PM Saturday 15/04/2017DocklandsCarlton62.1Gold Coast
47:40 PM Saturday 15/04/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide88.4Essendon
43:20 PM Sunday 16/04/2017DocklandsCollingwood50.2St Kilda
44:40 PM Sunday 16/04/2017GabbaBrisbane32.2Richmond
43:20 PM Monday 17/04/2017M.C.G.Hawthorn35.9Geelong
37:50 PM Friday 7/04/2017S.C.G.Sydney77.2Collingwood
31:45 PM Saturday 8/04/2017Bellerive OvalNorth Melbourne37GWS
32:10 PM Saturday 8/04/2017M.C.G.Richmond45.3West Coast
34:35 PM Saturday 8/04/2017DocklandsGeelong67.2Melbourne
37:40 PM Saturday 8/04/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide35.7Adelaide
37:40 PM Saturday 8/04/2017SubiacoFremantle31.8Western Bulldogs
31:10 PM Sunday 9/04/2017DocklandsSt Kilda82.1Brisbane
33:20 PM Sunday 9/04/2017M.C.G.Carlton47.8Essendon
34:40 PM Sunday 9/04/2017CarraraGold Coast41Hawthorn
27:20 PM Thursday 30/03/2017M.C.G.Richmond54.7Collingwood
27:50 PM Friday 31/03/2017DocklandsWestern Bulldogs58.1Sydney
21:45 PM Saturday 1/04/2017M.C.G.Hawthorn47.6Adelaide
24:35 PM Saturday 1/04/2017ShowgroundGWS83Gold Coast
27:25 PM Saturday 1/04/2017GabbaBrisbane49.8Essendon
27:40 PM Saturday 1/04/2017SubiacoWest Coast84.4St Kilda
21:10 PM Sunday 2/04/2017DocklandsGeelong74.1North Melbourne
23:20 PM Sunday 2/04/2017M.C.G.Melbourne71.4Carlton
24:40 PM Sunday 2/04/2017Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide80.6Fremantle
17:20 PM Thursday 23/03/2017M.C.G.Carlton42Richmond
17:50 PM Friday 24/03/2017M.C.G.Collingwood40.7Western Bulldogs
14:35 PM Saturday 25/03/2017DocklandsSt Kilda51.4Melbourne
14:35 PM Saturday 25/03/2017S.C.G.Sydney81.3Port Adelaide
17:25 PM Saturday 25/03/2017CarraraGold Coast63.9Brisbane
17:25 PM Saturday 25/03/2017M.C.G.Essendon16Hawthorn
11:10 PM Sunday 26/03/2017DocklandsNorth Melbourne49.8West Coast
13:20 PM Sunday 26/03/2017Adelaide OvalAdelaide63.2GWS
17:40 PM Sunday 26/03/2017SubiacoFremantle33.4Geelong

These probabilities are calculated using 3 main inputs:

  • Home Ground Advantage (HGA) which increases the likelihood of the home team winning. The HGA is larger when the away team has to travel further. It also takes into consideration the amount of games that each side has played at that particular venue over the last 2 years, further favouring the team that has more experience on the ground.2
  • The home team's Figuring Footy Scoring Shots (FFSS) rating, and
  • The away team's FFSS rating.

FFSS is an Elo rating system with a few notable twists. If you have never heard of Elo before I suggest reading about how a very simple AFL Elo rating system works. After that, it would be wise to acquaint yourself with the FFSS rating system in a very broad way. I will write more about FFSS at a later date, but for now that should get you on roughly the right page.

For those that don't want to take the time to read two 1000-word articles I'll try and quickly sum up FFSS for you.

When a game of footy is played, we learn a little bit about the quality of each side. The team that wins has shown us they have a certain level of quality. If we already rated that team highly, and the win was a rather routine, no-frills result against a much lower ranked team, then we were probably pretty accurate with our ratings from before.

However, if we rated that team a bit lower and they pulled off an emphatic win against a highly ranked team away from home, then that suggests that we may need to adjust our ratings upward.

FFSS tries to take a mathematical approach to this idea. It considers our prior predicted chance of winning, the actual result and margin, as well as the quality of chances that each team created3 and gives us a value by which to adjust our rating of the winning side upwards and rating of the losing side down. These ratings are then passed on to next week and used in predictions for games played next round.

The average rating of all teams is 1500. As a rule of thumb, a difference of 120pts means the higher rated team is expected to win about 2 out of 3 times if the two sides were to play many times. A 380pt difference suggest the higher rated team would win 9 out of 10.

In general interstate HGA equates to between 80 and 110 points. HGA between teams from the same state is usually between 0 and 20. But these values do change depending on team experience at grounds.

Updates


The FFSS ratings system is currently still a working prototype and improvements will be made throughout the year. I will list any of these below. Follow me on Twitter for notifications of any updates.

  • 31/05/16 - v1.1 - I have made a slight tweak to how the margin multiplier4 is calculated, particularly in close games. Previously a winning margin of say 4pts was considered unrealistically better than a margin of 5pts. The distribution is now flatter and which gives a multiplier more in-line with what a human would give.I have updated the ratings using the new system. Most teams remain within 1 or 2 pts of where they were before. Carlton are the big movers, jumping up 10pts due mainly to a higher weighting of their close wins against both Fremantle and Port Adelaide.
    Old Ratings
    Old Ratings

    Round 11 2016 FFSS Ratings
    Updated Ratings

 


  1. From 1% to 100%
  2. This also helps us account for the crowd affect. If a team plays many games at one venue, they likely get a fair proportion of the crowd there.
  3. Because if you only won because the opposition butchered all of their set-shots, you probably got lucky and shouldn't actually be rated much higher than you already were.
  4. How much does the margin affect the rating change