You may have noticed the website has been a bit quiet lately. Along with the usual “life commitments” spiel, the main reason for this lack…
Tag: Scoring Shots
Grand Final Preview (Part 1) – Two Very Different Defences
Posted in Analytics Landscape, ExpScore, Game Analysis, Scoring Map, and Shot Quality
In the lead-up to Saturday’s grand final I’ll be posting a new article each day previewing the big match. These articles will use some of the…
A Fresh Way to Think About Footy – Geelong v Sydney (Guest Post) Attacking/Defensive Heatmaps and Contested Marks
Posted in Analytics Landscape, Game Analysis, and Guest Post
For a change of pace this week, I have handed over the reins of the Figuring Footy stallion (colt?) to other amateur footy writers. I’m interested to see what insights…
A Fresh Way to Think About Footy – Sydney v Adelaide Time in Possession and Backmen Score Involvements
Posted in Analytics Landscape, Game Analysis, Player Tracking, Scoring Map, and Team Metrics
Followers of this blog have likely read my thoughts on the lacklustre state of AFL analytics, both inside clubs and throughout media has a whole. The…
A Fresh Way to Think About Footy – Adelaide v North Some new tools for footy analysis.
Posted in Age Profile, Analytics Landscape, Game Analysis, Scoring Map, Shot Quality, and Team Metrics
Followers of this blog have likely read my thoughts on the lacklustre state of AFL analytics, both inside clubs and throughout media has a whole. The…
The Shots that Made the 2016 Coleman Medal Kennedy is Freakishly Accurate, Buddy is Just a Freak
Posted in ExpScore, Scoring Map, and Shot Quality
The Coleman Medal, for most goals in the H&A season, was won this week by West Coast’s Josh Kennedy for the second year running. His 80…
A Model to Predict and Rate Shots by Quality Formalising and Parametrising Shot Probability
Posted in ExpScore, Game Analysis, Scoring Map, and Trends and Historic Analysis
A little over a month ago I published some empirical Goal Kicking Accuracy maps that looked at the likelihood of kicking a goal from each…
The Goal-Kicking Accuracy Fallacy Every Club in the AFL Kicks at Roughly the Same Level
Posted in ExpScore, and Team Metrics
Last week I posted an article visualising the competition average Goal-Kicking Accuracy (GKA) for shots from every position on the ground. If you haven’t read that…
I have been playing around with different types of data visualisation lately, particularly visualising scoring shots. I’m hoping to clearly see the quality of chances each team created to get a better idea of the styles they are playing and also their finishing ability. I previously looked at Goal-Kicking Accuracy in a very general sense and found that every team converts at more-or-less the same percentage (Goals/Behinds) in the long run. However, in that post I didn’t consider the quality of chances created, which is something I plan to spend much more time on in the future.
How the Best Teams are Not Necessarily the Ones Who Kick the Most Goals Looking at the importance and repeatability of shot creation
Posted in Team Metrics
Last article, I looked at how important Goal-Kicking Accuracy was to the chances of winning a match of AFL footy. It turned out that it was very important, teams that kick straighter very often end up winning. Unfortunately, in investigating this I also found out that repeating a straight kicking performance week-to-week with any sort of consistency doesn’t really happen. Goal-Kicking Accuracy is pretty much a crapshoot. Sometimes you’re on, sometimes you’re off, with no real rhyme or reason.
This naturally leads us to our next question. If kicking straight is not repeatable, what skills are? Why do some teams win much more often than others? What areas of the game do they excel in that are repeatable week after week?
Seeing as kicking more goals than your opponent is really the name of the game, and we now know accuracy is so variable, let’s start in the simplest place possible by looking at the number of scoring chances a side creates. While we’re at it, let’s also see how well they limit their opponent’s scoring chances. Is this where true, repeatable team talent lies?