I have been busy this week with work on my new Shot Probability model. Today too my free time is being taken up with creating some…
Tag: Probability
A Model to Predict and Rate Shots by Quality Formalising and Parametrising Shot Probability
Posted in ExpScore, Game Analysis, Scoring Map, and Trends and Historic Analysis
A little over a month ago I published some empirical Goal Kicking Accuracy maps that looked at the likelihood of kicking a goal from each…
Market odds this week are remarkably well calibrated with the FFSS model. Writing this on Thursday, before any team selection news, 6 of the 9…
I have some big updates to the ExpScore and Goal-Kicking Accuracy maps planned for the next week or so. I hopefully launch this along with…
2016 Round 16 – Tips and Predictions
Posted in Tipping
Today’s article and the shortened week mean I haven’t had the time to write up a proper preview and possible value bets for this round.…
Round 15 sees the last week of the bye period play out and I have no doubt that footy fans everywhere will be eager to…
With the top-8 looking sewn shut after last week’s results, it put’s us footy fans (and tippers) in an a bit of a strange position…
The split-rounds have rolled around again and 6 teams will be taking this weekend off. Luckily, we’re being treated to a particularly intriguing first bye…
After a delayed start to the week, the weekend has caught me off-guard and I only just have time to rush out a quick post…