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Tag: Probability

The Contrasting Styles of the AFL's Big Men The Shots that Made the 2017 Coleman Medal

Posted in ExpScore, Scoring Map, Shot Quality, and xScore

Round 23 will be long remembered for the "live ladder" fueled drama on Sunday evening which saw West Coast creep into the eight at the…

Who are the Best (and Worst) Kicks in the Comp? Looking at Goalkicking in 3 Different Ways

Posted in Analytics Landscape, ExpScore, Shot Quality, and xScore

For the fourth week in a row, a player has missed a potential match-winning shot with the last kick of the game. Isaac Smith relived…

The 'Simulated Gut' Season Predictor My Entry to The Arc's Projection Challenge

Posted in Simulation, and Tipping

This season, The Arc is running a simple little competition asking footy fans and modelers alike to predict and assign a probability to each team…

2016 Round 23 - Tips and Predictions One Final Round and Teams Could Bring Anything

Posted in Tipping

As we enter the last week of the regular season, I feel I should do any new readers a favour and reiterate a point I've made…

Match Analysis Using Shot Quality A Review of the Melbourne v Hawthorn Game

Posted in ExpScore, Game Analysis, Scoring Map, and Shot Quality

Last week I introduced a model which can be used to calculate the true quality of any scoring shot taken during a match. This basically quantifies…