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Ratings After Round 6 Welcome to the big league GWS

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Week 7 2016 FFSS RatingsThe Figuring Footy Scoring Shots (FFSS) model correctly tipped 6 out of 9 games this week1. The Dees, the Tigers and the Hawks all failed to get the wins they were predicted to. The story of the week probably took place in the last of those 3 games with GWS comprehensively dismantling the triple-reigning premiers Hawthorn, in a performance that has signaled the inevitable, GWS are now a legitimate challenger.

I mentioned last week, that the Giants were rapidly climbing the rankings, then sitting alone in a middle-ground between the lower ranked teams and the premiership hopefuls. With Saturday's result they have made the leap. They are now part of a top 8 that look leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the competition

The Hawks loss and their own narrow win against Brisbane sees Sydney hit the top of the rankings for the first time this year. But it is very crowded up there. The Swans are only 26 ratings points ahead of Adelaide in 6th (which for reference is about 4-5 points over a full game). In fact, if any of the the top 8 teams were to play each other this week, our best prediction would be for the home team to win.2

Down the other end of the ladder, Essendon have finally hit last. The Bombers are a truly depleted team this year, and this has clearly been reflected in their awful underlying for/against shot creation figures. I'd say it's unlikely we'll see them get out of last place for the rest of the Season, but it will be interesting to see if they can remain at least somewhat competitive or if they just drop off.

Also of interest, Freo and Richmond have continued their dramatic slides now rated significantly below average. Our best bet for Port considering their side and the way it has performed so far this year is that they are a pretty much smack bang on average. Unfortunately for them, unless the model sees their performances and shot creation get significantly better, they won't be challenging for the 8.

  1. But unfortunately lost the one small bet on Richmond that was suggested
  2. The Bulldogs hosting another team from Melbourne might be the one exception to this.

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