I have been preoccupied with more important business this week, so unfortunately there won’t be much of discussion about this week’s matches 1 Instead I’ll just post up the FFSS Model predictions, my bets and then more or less let you draw your own conclusions. Much like how I presented the new ratings on Monday.
If you crave more discussion, I post further details and comments pre and post-match on Twitter.
NOTE:
I have translated my calculated probabilities into inferred match odds and compared these to the current prices offered by some of the bigger bookmakers around the country, highlighting any major discrepancies. The reason I have done this is not to recommend or even advocate having a bet on any particular team (although I will certainly talk about “good bets” and “value”). But it is rather used as a way to explore the strengths and weaknesses of the model in greater detail.
Bookie prices can be seen as a general “public consensus” about what the true probabilities of a team winning a match are. When the model differs greatly from the public view it is good to know why. Is it seeing something else that the public are not valuing? Or, is it missing something entirely that others are taking into account? If it’s the latter, then there is clear improvement that can be made, if the former, then I guess we’re on to a winner.
All betting amounts will be discussed as unit bets assuming you have 100 units to play with as your full bankroll. For example if you have $1000 that you’re willing to lose over the year if worst comes to worst, then 1 unit is $10. A higher unit bet shows more confidence in the models assessment and the value to be made. If you are interested in betting as a serious money building exercise, first I would question whether you really want to cope with the stress of the virtually guaranteed big losses you will experience week to week. If the answer to that is yes, then read as much as you can on Bankroll Management and the fractional Kelly Criterion. You are very likely betting too much to be sustainable.
Predictions
St Kilda vs GWS
There are two 50/50 games predicted by FFSS this week. The Home Ground Advantage assessment exactly compensates for the away team’s higher rating in both the Port v Cats clash and in this one. I expect Geelong to beat Port, as I don’t think the model has entirely accounted for Port’s injuries nor the fact they have some players that just don’t want to be out there. As for this match, FFSS has the Saints as ever so slight favourites. I’m not sure about that, but I do think they are better value than $2.50.
Bet 3 units on St Kilda @ $2.50 – bet365
Melbourne vs Richmond
Bet 4 units on Richmond @ 1.92 – Sportsbet, Palmerbet
Really like the Richmond value with Maric in which is offset a little by Vince returning for Melbourne. I guess if Deledio plays then this becomes a great bet.
I’ve been assuming (and writing) that Maric was coming back for the last 3 weeks. I don’t think he’s in any way the solution to their (deep) structural problems, but you’re right, he definitely improves the side.
As for Vince, he only missed 1 week so the current FFSS rating (which doesn’t factor in that he didn’t play last week) is probably not that far removed from a “true” Melbourne rating with him in the side.
I think there is value in Richmond, but every inch of body is trying to fight it. They have looked awful.